Nebulocracy: The Dawn of Artificial Super Wisdom in Governance

In a recent thought-provoking video, tech philosopher David Shapiro introduced the concept of "nebulocracy," a futuristic approach to governance that leverages artificial super wisdom and moral graphs. This innovative idea, born from the intersection of artificial intelligence and ethical philosophy, presents a radical reimagining of how societies could make decisions and govern themselves in the future.

The Foundation: Moral Graphs and Artificial Super Wisdom

At the core of Shapiro's concept are moral graphs, a technology developed by the Meaning Alignment Institute. Unlike traditional data structures that simply capture preferences or choices, moral graphs aim to represent the complex landscape of human values, wisdom, and ethical considerations in a structured format.

Shapiro explains that a moral graph can be understood as a representation of various states or situations, with the connections between these states representing decisions or actions. These connections can be weighted based on their perceived wisdom, with thicker lines indicating decisions that are considered wiser by a greater consensus.

Building upon these moral graphs, the concept of artificial super wisdom emerges as the next frontier beyond artificial intelligence. While AI excels at problem-solving and pattern recognition, artificial super wisdom incorporates ethical considerations and human values into its decision-making processes. As Shapiro puts it, "Intelligence is the ability to solve problems and achieve goals... but wisdom is the why." This distinction is crucial in understanding the potential impact of artificial super wisdom on governance and decision-making.

Nebulocracy: A New Paradigm of Collective Governance

Shapiro envisions nebulocracy as a system where citizens continuously input their values, concerns, and ethical stances into a vast, interconnected network. This network, powered by artificial super wisdom, would analyze these inputs to identify areas of consensus and generate policy recommendations that align with the collective wisdom of the population.

In this system, instead of voting for representatives or specific policies, people would express their values into the moral graph. The artificial super wisdom would then use this information to make decisions or recommendations that best align with the aggregated wisdom and values of the population.

One of the key advantages Shapiro highlights is the potential for achieving much higher levels of consensus. He cites research by the Meaning Alignment Institute showing that even on contentious issues, when focusing on underlying values rather than specific policy positions, it's possible to achieve up to 90% agreement among diverse groups.

Potential Benefits of Nebulocracy

Shapiro argues that nebulocracy could address many shortcomings of current democratic systems:

1. Higher Consensus: By focusing on underlying values rather than polarizing policy positions, nebulocracy could help bridge ideological divides and find common ground on contentious issues.

2. Reduced Corruption: By diminishing the role of individual representatives, nebulocracy could potentially reduce the influence of lobbyists and special interests. Shapiro points out that in current systems, a small number of individuals (legislators) become targets for manipulation, whereas a system based on aggregated values of millions would be much harder to corrupt.

3. Scalability: The model could theoretically scale from local to global levels. Shapiro envisions a future where the values and wisdom of billions of people worldwide could be aggregated to address global challenges.

4. Dynamic Responsiveness: As societal values and priorities shift, the system could adapt in real-time, ensuring that governance remains aligned with the populace's current needs and beliefs.

5. Wisdom-Driven Decisions: Instead of simple majority rule, decisions would be based on aggregated wisdom and values, potentially leading to more ethical and beneficial outcomes for society as a whole.

Challenges and Considerations

While the concept is intriguing, Shapiro acknowledges several potential challenges:

1. Wisdom of the Masses: There's a question of whether collective wisdom will always lead to optimal decisions. Shapiro acknowledges that in some cases, expert knowledge might be superior to collective opinion.

2. Energy Direction: People might focus on emotionally charged issues, potentially neglecting important but less attention-grabbing areas. This could lead to imbalances in the moral graph.

3. Implementation and Execution: Even with a theoretically sound system, proper implementation would be crucial for success. Shapiro emphasizes that the "devil is in the details" when it comes to executing such a complex system.

4. Privacy and Data Security: A system that constantly collects and analyzes personal values and beliefs could pose significant privacy risks.

5. Potential for Manipulation: While more resilient than current systems, there might still be ways for bad actors to attempt to manipulate the moral graph.

From Theory to Practice: Potential Applications

While full-scale nebulocracy might be far in the future, Shapiro suggests several potential near-term applications for moral graphs and artificial super wisdom:

1. Social Media Enhancement: Replacing attention engineering with meaning engineering. Instead of optimizing for engagement through outrage or "thirst traps," platforms could serve content that users find genuinely meaningful based on their values.

2. Community Coordination: Using moral graphs in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) or local community decision-making. This could help achieve consensus more easily in these settings.

3. Event Matching: Connecting people with events and other individuals based on shared values and interests, potentially addressing issues of loneliness and improving social connections.

4. Corporate Decision-Making: Aligning company decisions with employee values, potentially leading to more ethical business practices and higher employee satisfaction.

5. Online Platform Optimization: Shapiro suggests that platforms like LinkedIn, Reddit, and others could benefit from implementing moral graph technology to create more meaningful user experiences.

The Road to Nebulocracy

Shapiro emphasizes that the path to implementing something like nebulocracy would be long and gradual. He suggests that it might take decades or even centuries to fully develop and implement such a system. The process would likely involve:

1. Further development and refinement of moral graph technology

2. Gradual integration of artificial super wisdom into existing decision-making processes

3. Extensive testing and iteration at various scales (from small communities to larger populations)

4. Addressing technical, ethical, and societal challenges as they arise

Global Implications and Future Prospects

Perhaps the most ambitious aspect of Shapiro's vision is the potential for global coordination. He imagines a future where the collective wisdom of 10 billion people could be aggregated into a moral graph containing trillions of data points. Such a system could potentially address global challenges that currently seem intractable due to conflicting national interests.

However, Shapiro is careful to note that this is a long-term vision. He acknowledges that there are many steps between the current state of the technology (which he describes as a "toy dataset") and a global-scale implementation.

Conclusion: A Glimpse into a Possible Future

Nebulocracy and artificial super wisdom, as presented by David Shapiro, represent a bold reimagining of governance in an AI-enhanced future. While these ideas may seem like science fiction today, they prompt us to think critically about the strengths and weaknesses of our current systems and how emerging technologies might help us build more responsive, equitable, and effective forms of governance.

As we continue to grapple with global challenges and rapid technological change, the concepts introduced by Shapiro offer a fascinating glimpse into a possible future of collective decision-making and global coordination. Whether or not nebulocracy becomes a reality, the underlying ideas about aggregating human wisdom and values are likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping our approach to governance and decision-making in the years to come.